Fire Occurrence Probability Index
Product Overview
The Fire Occurrence Probability Index (FOIP) is a fire danger index, combining the Canadian Fire Weather Index with remote observations of Vegetation Optical Depth to better predict landscape flammability.
This is designed to improve fire danger predictions in fuel-limited environments where fire is driven by the short-term drying of intermittently available fuel.
Technical Details
Main hazard addressed:
Wildfires
Other related hazards:
Heatwaves
Type of Product:
Forecast
Data Type:
Raster Map
Licensing:
Free for use with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts partners and member states
Fire Occurrence Probability Index in Europe on 9 February 2026
Available Implementations
ARISTOTLE
Primary implementation from the ARISTOTLE project (All Risk Integrated System TOwards Trans-boundary hoListic Early-warning), given as a probability between 0 and 1.
Horizon:
5 days
Spatial Resolution:
9 km
Time Resolution:
3 hours
Coverage:
Global
Update Every:
Day
Coverage: Array
Use Cases & Applications
Provides utility globally, therefore, available for all GOBEYOND’s pilot sites.
Associated Models
- Integrated Forecasting SystemView Model
Express interest
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe programme for research and innovation under grant agreement No. 101121135. Additional funding is provided by the Swiss Government.