Algorithm for estimating hourly forecasts of flash flood impact levels over the river network for the next 6 hours. It integrates precipitation from radar mosaic derived nowcasts and forecasts with information about population and critical infrastructure asset exposure.
The method first computes precipitation accumulations over the channel network and compares them with reference thresholds derived from a long-term climatology. Forecast impact levels are then obtained by combining the hydrometeorological estimates with the exposure layer through a risk-matrix, enabling rapid identification of areas where flash-flood impacts are more likely to occur.



Berenguer, M., D. Sempere-Torres, G. S. Pegram (2011). SBMcast - An ensemble nowcasting technique to assess the uncertainty in rainfall forecasts by Lagrangian extrapolation. J. Hydrol, 404, 226-240. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022169411002940
