Earthquake and Ashfall Scenario Evaluation (EASE)
Description
EASE is an impact scenario assessment model developed by UNINA-PLINIVS to support civil protection planning and emergency management in volcanic areas. It estimates expected damage from precursor earthquakes and volcanic ash fall by integrating hazard scenarios, exposure data, and vulnerability models. Hazard data are automatically acquired from INGV (Osservatorio Vesuviano) monitoring systems, while exposure and vulnerability are derived from extensive surveys and statistical databases. For each 250 × 250 m cell, EASE estimates the number of collapsed or unsafe buildings and affected population. The model is operationally used by the Italian Civil Protection Department and local authorities for Vesuvio and Campi Flegrei emergency planning.
The ash fall impact component relies on volcanic ash dispersion scenarios provided by INGV. At present, the operational chain is undergoing an update phase due to the discontinuation of previously adopted atmospheric wind models. The integration of new meteorological inputs is in progress to restore and enhance the operational capability of ash fall impact simulations within the GOBEYOND framework.
The core EASE impact assessment system is complete and has been validated in relevant operational environments, where it is routinely used to support civil protection planning and emergency management in volcanic areas. Within the GOBEYOND project, specific components are currently under upgrade to enhance near real-time performance. These include the development of non-isotropic ShakeMaps for earthquakes and the update of meteorological inputs for volcanic ash fall simulations following the discontinuation of previously adopted wind models. The system therefore combines mature operational components with targeted developments aimed at improving real-time capabilities.
Technical Information
Main hazard addressed:
Earthquakes
Other related hazards:
Volcanic Eruptions
IP Ownership:
Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II (UNINA)
Development Stage:
TRL 8-9: System complete and qualified, with operational components proven in relevant environments
Example of near-real-time earthquake impact assessment within the EASE platform. The interface displays the seismic scenario, the corresponding intensity distribution, and the grid-based estimation of potential building damage for the Campi Flegrei area, together with the database of processed seismic events.
Example of volcanic ashfall scenario simulation generated by the EASE system. The map illustrates the spatial distribution of ash load derived from dispersion modelling and the corresponding territorial impact over the Campi Flegrei and surrounding areas.
Products using this model
- Earthquake and Volcanic Ash Fall ImpactView Product
References
Cacace, F., Zuccaro, G., De Gregorio, D., & Perelli, F. L. (2018). Building Inventory at National scale by evaluation of seismic vulnerability classes distribution based on Census data analysis: BINC procedure. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 28, 384-393.
Folch, A., Costa, A., & Macedonio, G. (2009). FALL3D: A computational model for transport and deposition of volcanic ash. Computers & Geosciences, 35(6), 1334-1342.
Iervolino, I., Cito, P., De Falco, M., Festa, G., Herrmann, M., Lomax, A., ... & Zollo, A. (2024). Seismic risk mitigation at Campi Flegrei in volcanic unrest. Nature communications, 15(1), 1-14.
Scala, A., Strumia, C., Cito, P., Di Uccio, F. S., Festa, G., Iervolino, I., ... & Iaccarino, A. G. (2025). Ground motion models for Campi Flegrei (Italy). Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 1-29.
Spence, R. J. S., Kelman, I., Baxter, P. J., Zuccaro, G., & Petrazzuoli, S. (2005). Residential building and occupant vulnerability to tephra fall. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 5(4), 477-494.
Zuccaro, G., Cacace, F., Spence, R. J. S., & Baxter, P. J. (2008). Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 178(3), 416-453.
Zuccaro, G., & Cacace, F. (2015). Seismic vulnerability assessment based on typological characteristics. The first level procedure “SAVE”. Soil dynamics and earthquake engineering, 69, 262-269.
Zuccaro, G., & De Gregorio, D. (2019). Impact assessments in volcanic areas-The Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei cases studies. Annals of Geophysics, 62(1), VO02-VO02.