Earthquake Early Response and Impact Assessment model for the Campi Flegrei area

The earthquake early response model relies on three basic ingredients:

• An on-site Earthquake Early Warning algorithm (Caruso et al., 2017), adapted to operate using only one second of seismic signals from earthquakes in the Campi Flegrei area. It works on the vertical component of ground acceleration following a block scheme: (1) automatic earthquake detection, (2) peak ground motion (PGV and PGA) estimation from early P-peak of displacement, (3) magnitude estimation from early P-peak of displacement (Pd) and early characteristic frequency content (tc), (4) assessment of the impacted area around the recording site;
• Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs; Scala et al., 2025), locally calibrated for the Campi Flegrei area.
• Regional relationships between ground motion and macro seismic intensity (IMCS) (Faenza and Michelini 2010).

Upon the first P-wave detection by a tailored signal processing algorithm, the system estimates the earthquake moment magnitude and predicts the peak ground motion velocity, acceleration and intensity (IMCS). By using the regional GMPEs and predicted magnitude, the spatial extent of the potential damage zone around the pilot site is then assessed (Longobardi et al., 2025)