Volcanic Ash Plume Concentrations and Dispersion
Product Overview
This product provides early-warning information on volcanic ash plume concentrations and their atmospheric dispersion after explosive eruptions. It addresses the need for reliable and timely identification of hazardous ash clouds by combining dispersion modelling with improved estimates of volcanic emissions derived from observations. The product supports safer aviation operations, emergency response, and risk management by reducing uncertainties in ash forecasts.
Technical Details
Main hazard addressed:
Ash Fall, Volcanic Eruptions
Other related hazards:
Air Quality
Type of Product:
Forecast
Data Type:
NetCDF
Licensing:
Scientific use under agreement with the National Observatory of Athens
Volcanic ash dispersion and column loading (μg m−2) over the Eastern Mediterranean (a) a-priori, (b) a-posteriori FLEXPART simulations
Vertical profile of volcanic ash. FLEXPART a priori model simulations (green line), a posteriori model simulation (blue line), and ACTRIS lidar-derived ash concentrations over the PANGEA observatory (orange line).
Available Implementations
Near-real-time Volcanic Ash Concentration Forecasts
Its resolution depends on the driving meteorological fields and the model configuration
Horizon:
Up to 72 hours
Spatial Resolution:
0.1° × 0.1°
Time Resolution:
1 hour
Coverage:
European, Mediterranean, Global
Update Every:
6 hours or event-driven
Retrospective and Emission-Optimized Dispersion Simulations
Horizon:
Not-forecast
Spatial Resolution:
Up to 0.05° × 0.05°
Time Resolution:
1-hour
Coverage:
Regional, European
Update Every:
On demand
Coverage: Array
Use Cases & Applications
Within GOBEYOND, the product supports aviation safety authorities, Civil Protection agencies, and health services by providing near-real-time volcanic ash forecasts. It is implemented in the Pozzuoli and Attica pilot sites to enhance volcanic crisis preparedness, exposure assessment, and risk-informed decision-making.
Associated Models
- FLEXPART Lagrangian ModelView Model
Express interest
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe programme for research and innovation under grant agreement No. 101121135. Additional funding is provided by the Swiss Government.