Description
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts produces each month a European-scale seasonal weather forecast from the SEA5 model. The forecasts consist of a set of 51 equiprobable members that have a daily time resolution and a 7-month horizon.
The Standard Precipitation Index will be calculated for each cell of the model grid (5 x 5 km) for each month of the forecast in each ensemble member. The 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles will be used as a reference and translated to drought categories through standardized thresholds.
Vulnerable elements or areas will be crossed against the gridded forecast obtaining an impact forecast according to hyperlocal thresholds.
Technical Information
Main hazard addressed:
Droughts
Other related hazards:
Wildfires
IP Ownership:
Wageningen University and Research
Development Stage:
TRL 7: System prototype demonstration in operational environment
Workflow of the Seasonal Drought Algorithm.
Products using this model
- Drought Indicator on PrecipitationView Product
References
Sutanto, S. J., Wetterhall, F., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Hydrological drought forecasts outperform meteorological drought forecasts, Environmental Research Letter, 15, 084010, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8b13, 2020
Sutanto, S. J., van der Weert, M., Blauhut, V., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Skill of large-scale seasonal drought impact forecasts, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 20, 1595-1608, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1595-2020, 2020.
Sutanto, S.J., van der Weert, M., Wanders, N. et al. Moving from drought hazard to impact forecasts. Nat Commun 10, 4945 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12840-z